Study pins oil-price volatility on speculation

You are right one the money. Speaking of money, the Republicans

have stolen so much of it they can meet anyone's price for their soul.

Even the Saudis were honest about it not being supply & demand.

Guess links dont work....

FORM 13F INFORMATION TABLE TITLE OF VALUE SHARES/ SH/ PUT/ INVSTMT VOTING AUTHORITY
NAME OF ISSUER CLASS CUSIP (X$1000) PRN AMT PRN CALL DSCRETN SOLE SHARED NONE

ABITIBIBOWATER INC COM 003687100 4,665 500,000 SH SOLE 500,000 0 0
ALCATEL-LUCENT SPONSORED ADR 013904305 6,040 1,000,000 SH SOLE 1,000,000 0 0
ALCATEL-LUCENT SPONSORED ADR 013904305 3,020 500,000 SH CALL SOLE 500,000 0 0
ALCATEL-LUCENT SPONSORED ADR 013904305 3,020 500,000 SH CALL SOLE 500,000 0 0
AMR CORP COM 001765106 5,091 994,400 SH CALL SOLE 994,400 0 0
AMR CORP COM 001765106 5,120 1,000,000 SH CALL SOLE 1,000,000 0 0
AMR CORP COM 001765106 5,120 1,000,000 SH CALL SOLE 1,000,000 0 0
BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION COM 060505104 23,870 1,000,000 SH CALL SOLE 1,000,000 0 0
BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION COM 060505104 23,870 1,000,000 SH CALL SOLE 1,000,000 0 0
DELTA AIR LINES INC DEL COM NEW 247361702 11,400 2,000,000 SH SOLE 2,000,000 0 0
EXIDE TECHNOLOGIES COM NEW 302051206 4,190 250,000 SH SOLE 250,000 0 0
FEDERAL NATL MTG ASSN COM 313586109 19,510 1,000,000 SH CALL SOLE 1,000,000 0 0
GANNETT INC COM 364730101 16,253 750,000 SH CALL SOLE 750,000 0 0
GENERAL MTRS CORP COM 370442105 5,750 500,000 SH CALL SOLE 500,000 0 0
GENERAL MTRS CORP COM 370442105 11,500 1,000,000 SH CALL SOLE 1,000,000 0 0
GENERAL MTRS CORP COM 370442105 11,500 1,000,000 SH CALL SOLE 1,000,000 0 0
GOOGLE INC CL A 38259P508 52,642 100,000 SH CALL SOLE 100,000 0 0
GOOGLE INC CL A 38259P508 52,642 100,000 SH CALL SOLE 100,000 0 0
LOUISIANA PAC CORP COM 546347105 2,547 300,000 SH CALL SOLE 300,000 0 0
LOUISIANA PAC CORP COM 546347105 8,490 1,000,000 SH CALL SOLE 1,000,000 0 0
LOUISIANA PAC CORP COM 546347105 8,490 1,000,000 SH CALL SOLE 1,000,000 0 0
LOWES COS INC COM 548661107 20,750 1,000,000 SH CALL SOLE 1,000,000 0 0
MIRANT CORP NEW *W EXP 01/03/201 60467R118 9,045 500,000 SH SOLE 500,000 0 0
NEOSE TECHNOLOGIES INC COM 640522108 600 2,000,000 SH SOLE 2,000,000 0 0
NUCOR CORP COM 670346105 22,401 300,000 SH CALL SOLE 300,000 0 0
OFFICE DEPOT INC COM 676220106 10,940 1,000,000 SH CALL SOLE 1,000,000 0 0
PFIZER INC COM 717081103 8,735 500,000 SH SOLE 500,000 0 0
RADIOSHACK CORP COM 750438103 12,270 1,000,000 SH CALL SOLE 1,000,000 0 0
SANDISK CORP COM 80004c101 9,350 500,000 SH CALL SOLE 500,000 0 0
SANDISK CORP COM 80004c101 9,350 500,000 SH CALL SOLE 500,000 0 0
SATCON TECHNOLOGY CORP COM 803893106 4,970 1,750,000 SH SOLE 1,750,000 0 0
SCHLUMBERGER LTD COM 806857108 53,232 495,500 SH CALL SOLE 495,500 0 0
U S AIRWAYS GROUP INC COM 90341W108 10,000 4,000,000 SH SOLE 4,000,000 0 0
UAL CORP COM NEW 902549807 5,220 1,000,000 SH SOLE 1,000,000 0 0
UAL CORP COM NEW 902549807 1,190 228,000 SH CALL SOLE 228,000 0 0
WYETH COM 983024100 47,960 1,000,000 SH CALL SOLE 1,000,000 0 0
WYETH COM 983024100 47,960 1,000,000 SH CALL SOLE 1,000,000 0 0
WYETH COM 983024100 47,960 1,000,000 SH CALL SOLE 1,000,000 0 0

It is pretty safe to assume that the OTHER 170 billion still 'invested' in the oil market from 2003 to the start of 2008, ran the price from 15 to 95. Get that out and you'll have $1 gallon gas. Again, the article states the obvious after the fact, but still not the whole story. The massive 'investment' was across the commodity market not just oil. Your paying 15 bucks for a pizza this year instead of 10 like you did last year because food commodity 'investment' is up 500% from last year not because of shortages. Take a look at the whold commodity market since mid July...down, down, down. The specs are leaving

A former user, feman185 said it all along….until he got kicked off. @!$%#, the bastard even got the day of 7/15 right.

Let's see - 12 years ago? Hmm. Not Bush's fault. Guess who gets the blame?

While he was bonkin Monica, Ben Laden and this occurred. What a champion!!!

Art-492724

MAINTENANCE!!! (yes I'm yelling!) How many things in your life go for 12 years and never need to be looked at again.

What would happen to your car if you drove it the normal 10,000 miles per year and never did any maintenance after 12 years. tires oil battery

What would happen to your house if you didn't do a thing to it in 12 years. It would be a pig sty and condemned for one. The sinks leaking, the paint marked up etc.

Do you believe that you tell your kid at 4 years old the set of rules and 12 years later (about 14) these rules won't change according to circumstance?

We see this stuff happening yet nothing gets done about it. This should have been being monitored all along yet nothing was done. As soon as they were finding people abusing the law and finding loopholes that may not have been thought of before, they should be brought back and updated to reflect the current situation.

Al Gore would have monitored it.

He would have encouraged the car companies to build fuel efficient cars

and we'd be a world leader now.

When Ari Flesher was asked about conservation after the first stolen election,

he said, "That's a Big NO ! "

Try to blame the dems all you'd like, those with a shread of intelligence and

integrity know what the truth is and who's to blame for the current circumstances.

Those who would be named are too powerful and

are the types who would threaten your kids if you

told the truth. They'd just send one of their paid

mercs who have no soul and only worship money.

The prices on the stock market are the prices oil is sold for THREE MONTHS FROM NOW. As such, we are still paying for about $135 a barrel.

This "article" is clearly biased, I don't think anyone can disput that. That being said, prices are dropping because people are driving less, and that in turn is chasing off the speculators in the market.

In a few months, sales of SUV's will start to recover, because $3.75 is bearable, and prices will start to rise yet again.

Also note: The price of oil always tends to fall prior to an election. Same thing happened in 2000 and 2004.

In short, this is a temporaty reduction in price, nothing more. I doubt we will be seeing sub $3.50 prices again, until we switch to Hydrogen or Electricity.

gamerk2
No, oil is traded as a commodity, not a stock. Since it is a commodity as is gas, you pay what the current price that it is trading at not what it cost to make or what it will cost in a month. Like gold, it to is a commodity and you can get what the current market rate is. If you had a chunk of gold laying around that your great great great granddaddy dug up in the gold rush, you get the current market price, not what it was when it was pulled from the ground.

Keep buying the S&D line. You can sell you pick-up or your SUV and go out and buy one of those scam vehicles if you want. Bottom line, when most of the spec money is gone, gas will be at 2 bucks a gallon or less by springtime. And you'll have a $500 month hybrid payment on your hands. Money is driving the price....not S&D.

Actually, oil was kept artificially cheap in the US for years. This was done intentionally by oil companies in order to keep the US from researching alternatives.

The fact prices have spiked shows the the end of oil is far closer than anyone realizes. In my mind, we have <5 years to get off the stuff.

And as for the "drill now" mentality, it will take close to a decade to get any working rigs built in the Ocean/Alaska that produce any significant amount of oil. And even if we drill more, we have no capacity to REFINE the oil into gasoline. Refinaries cost $20-$40 Billion on average; thats why the refinaries built in the late 70's are co-owned by multiple companies, because no one entity can afford to build one.

In short: You want to spend upwards of $50 Billion and 10 years for a resource we can be off in half the time.

If we could instantly extract and refine oil, than most everyone would agree to drill more now until we can get off the stuff. But we can't, and those of us that can understand the underlying issue know that spending more resources drilling for oil is not how we will get out of this mess.

We can have production Hydrogen cars ready in 5-7 years, or we can START getting more oil in 10. Which is the better investment?

"Actually, oil was kept artificially cheap in the US for years. This was done intentionally by oil companies in order to keep the US from researching alternatives." How do you know this? Can you share your resources?

Its called analysis. The rest of the developed world has been paying the equivalent to $5 for gasoline for over a decade now (I'm not talking about most of western Europe, which has price controls to force gas to be expensive).

High prices bring competiton. And when a few companies have a monopoly on the market, the one rule to follow is to keep competition from entering the marketplace. People running the oil companies know this, and OPEC does as well.

OPEC wants its oil train to go on as long as it can. If high prices lead to a reduction/replacement of oil, they lose a ton of money. As a result, the US has been getting far cheaper gas, in order to prevent alternatives from occuring.

What we are paying now is close to the true market value of oil. Its not dropping below $3, thats for sure.

Forgot to add this:

The cost of a barral of oil when Bush (43) was elected was about $10 a Barral (maybe closer to $15, but it makes the math a bit easier). Oil peaked at about $150 a barral ($147 and change, again, close enough).

Supply has been more or less flat, so if prices went up 15 times, that means demand had to rise 15 times as much over seven years.

I don't care how much China grows, they didn't multiply the worlds oil demand by 15 times over 7 years. And if the price was all speculation, we would be seeing far more volatility in the price on any given day.

Use that with my above reasoning, and you understand why i think its clear that the price of oil has been kept low on purpose.

You are absolutely right. Unfortunately, the stupid people's

voting habits effect even those of us who know better.

Hopefully they give someone with a brain a chance to start

correcting all the inane decisions made by this administration.

Honest question for you (assuming no ND agreements and such):

How much oil exists in Alaska/Gulf of Mexico that we can drill for, how soon can we get it, and how much can we expect to get PER DAY (I don't care about how much there is if we can't drill it up quickly enough to affect the prices at the pump).

And in your opinion, would we be better of (long term, even if it will cause some pain) focusing on alternatives?

KG-514903-
I disagree with your statement. It comes off like "dumb Americans should have known".

At the same time, Suburbans were rolling off the assembly lines and advertised on TV like mad. People were cheered on as being really ambitious for driving 60 miles one way to work. People got on planes and flew all over the place without much effort to do business over the phone.

Back in the Carter years, they were really getting into energy conservation. There was a 30 year plan and had we kept it up, we would probably all be driving electric cars and we wouldn't be in the mess we're in.

Car companies, oil companies, media and many others led us to believe that there was never a problem and it was OK to use, use, use because that's what made them richer. It's not the average Joe's fault. His/her job is to fix the plumbing, wiring, build houses, raise food etc. That's where they are the experts. It's the greed of corporate America. If they saw a bit of extra money in it, by hook or by crook, they were going to stick it to us. Ethical or not.

If we're going to allow corporate America to call the shots and lead us, they darn well better make a conscious decision to lead us in the right direction.

gamerk2:
its said there is enough oil in the north slope of alaska alone to fuel this country for the next 200 years.

it is also said the wells are drilled and capped...so to bring it online a few months. to actually get oil from to OCS. maybe a year. your talking about a nation that during WW2 was able to get it beaten up and sunk battleships up and going in a few months.

if we really had to get to it in a hurry we could.

I fully agree with your statements about the discovery and refining of crude oil.. I also do not believe that the other oil producing nations are entirely responsible for the high cost..

If the high cost of gas and heating oil was based on supply and demand the prices would not change almost on a daily basis.. To be sure the prices would increase but at a much slower pace.. I place the blame squarely on the speculators - seeking massive profits and hurting the consuming public.. Let's face it - there is no competition for fuels that is reasonable at this time nor is there any really strong push to create an alternative..

Regardless of opinions to the contrary - I wonder why it took so long for studies to prove what most of us have been saying since gas headed into orbit months ago.. I also wonder exactly what our congresscritters are going to do to reverse it - and to make sure it never happens again.. While I'm at it I am curious to find out how many of our elected officials received campaign contributions from oil companies - Wall Street trading firms - and associated lobbiests in any way or form.. Be it "soft money" or any other type of support...

In science, for a theory to hold true, it must be true at the medians and the extremes. Therefore, if lower taxes result in more growth, a 0% tax rate would provide the maximum amount of growth for the economy, and as a result, a larger cash stockpile for the government.

As such a policy would bankrupt the government, it is clear that the assumption Republicans have about the economy are wrong. And thats before you factor in Coorporate greed and mismanagement.

In fact the last 3 Republican presidants have been economic disasters, by any impartial observation:

Regan: 4 Trillion in debt was added under him, and the Savings and Loans crysis (although he's the only one of the three who succedded in making the economy grow at a decent rate).
Bush (41): Had to raise taxes to fight deficit Regan left
Bush (43): Added another 4 Trillion to the deficit, Housing and Credit market collapse (still in progress)

Yep, Republicans know how to run the economy...

Republicans also blocked legislation that would have put a stop to speculation in the commodity markets (which used to be illegial anyway...).

Last I heard, they were stopping a troop funding bill from passing until they got the right to drill in parts of Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico. Not sure how that turned out though (I'm at work now; I haven't caught up on the news yet). Isn't it ironic though that now its the Republicans from blocking troop funding bills?

I take it you wanted Hillary instead of Barack? Seriously you blame lying cheating admin of Bush.... speculation is what I say drives the oil market, but just my opinion.

How many times has everyone seen the the term, or one like it, Bush's oil buddies? Usually used in the context of him getting them rich. I have never seen one of their names printed. I do know of one person getting rich off the oil (scare) market: Al Gore. He's made a cool $100 million since he left office, mainly by scaring people about fossil fuels and their side effects.

NO not really, I'm fine with Barack. I do agree with you on speculation. My comments on the white house crooks were meant to mean they know it's the speculators and have done nothing about it but LIE!! There is plenty of other lies and B.S. they feed us on a daily basis.